Экономические науки/ 7. Учет и аудит

Olga Yu. Gavel',

PhD (Doctor of Philosophy), Associate Professor of the Department "Accounting, analysis and audit" Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow

Alexander Yu. Usanov

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department "Accounting, analysis and audit" Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow

Real options as tools as strategic controlling in agrobusiness

Annotation.

The article deals with the development of modern analytical tools of strategic management. The authors have proposed and investigated, in practice, the method of the effective application of real options in strategic controlling agribusiness.

Keywords: strategy controlling, method of real options, agro-business, risk the realization strategy development

In terms of macroeconomic instability and mass penetration of process and organizational innovation in business there is a need for a qualitative upgrade of the analytical tools of strategic management. For a number of sectors of the national economy, which include the agricultural sector, are characterized by volatile markets, which implies a significant dependence of business value created from the flexibility of management actions. For the agricultural sector hyper dependence characteristic parameters of the yield of the changing situation on the raw materials and final goods markets. The situation on the food market, in turn, is determined by random factors, making it difficult to forecast. Under these conditions, the implementation of long-term projects with a significant return on investment of the calculation period involves not only long, sources of funds, but also the application of new approaches to identify "weak signals" of the market, assess their systemic and proactive response to the changes taking place. By itself, the possibility of pre-emptive response creates additional benefits for business stakeholders, which in financial and analytical practice is usually associated with the concept of real options.

The economic value of projects counted by traditional assessment methods are not able to take into account the prospects for future growth, the possibility of expanding their use, quality of management, flexibility in decisions on the development of the project, did not adequately reflect the high-risk conditions, it neglects its possible positive effects, etc. The basis of these drawbacks - offered by these methods passive management of the project, ignoring the opportunity to change the decision on the basis of new information.

The basis of the theory of real options is the concept that the flexibility and development potential have a certain cost. The method of real options (Real Options Analysis) allows for the possibility of changing project conditions, the presence of choice at various stages, as well as the prospects for future development. It allows you to quantify the available opportunities in innovative projects and include them in the calculation of the project cost.

Get in recent years widespread in agribusiness projects of public-private partnerships are also exposed to risks of food market regulation rules, the lack of certainty in the law, including environmental regulations and standards. In these circumstances, the use of real options method has significant potential for adaptation of techniques and methods used in the practice of traditional investment analysis to solving problems associated with giving the necessary flexibility of action makers long- and medium-term management decisions

In connection with the application of a new model of financial and investment analysis of projects it is necessary to identify and evaluate options of forming the cost of projects. Real Options advisable to structure into three main groups: investment / growth; time / learning; failure / change parameters

After the identification of options specific to the project, should take into account their value as a correction in the algorithm of the investment analysis. The result is the ability to correctly determine the value of a whiter NPV indicators and IRR, reflecting the results of the analytical model of proactive response. The composition and value of individual options is defined as the reduction in the premium for the uncertainty level.

Contract options in agribusiness are certain specifics, related, on the one hand, with the effect on the operating results of organizations 'forces of nature', on the other - retarded reactions state regulator of the food market. Typical parameters of a material contractual options for agribusiness are considered by the authors [4].

In the selection of projects for funding and the subsequent analysis of the traditional business activity indicators, covering the assets of debt, margin cash flow, profitability and value added indicators should be used, taking into account the potential risk of the project for the company party. In case of default of the option the amount of value added to the cost of the project becomes zero. Calculation and monitoring of this group of indicators determined by completeness and accuracy of information available to the analyst.

A very useful application of real options could be to support and further adjust the capital structure the financing of projects [5]. Most often, to justify the rational structure of sources of financing used by book value of equity. In this case there is a contradiction, due to the fact that in making large-scale projects to finance the cost of equity capital campaign can not be less than the cost of the project, i.e., it becomes negative. However, this ignores the fact that even in the beginning of adverse conditions associated with the financing of the project, the situation as far as its implementation may change dramatically. The company's capital can also be represented as a real option with the following parameters: value of the underlying asset is the estimated value of the company's assets; strike price - book value of debt financing; the period of exercise - the weighted average maturity of debt financing; sigma - the volatility of the financial market; risk-free rate - Treasury forecast rate of return for the term of the option.

Using the formula of real option in calculating the cost of equity capital of the company, implementing investment projects, significantly expanding the analytical capabilities for assessing and monitoring the effectiveness of investments. Negative equity "problem" or "young" companies that implement an investment project, is no longer an insurmountable obstacle for investors who invest in promising growth.

Therefore, an adequate form of modern market information and analytical tools, real options method significantly increases the reliability of the forecast (at the stage of analysis of the project) and current analytical assessments (at the project monitoring stage).

Literature

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3. Гавель О.Ю. Стратегический анализ данных в условиях реализации адаптивной бизнес-модели // Экономика. Бизнес. Банки, №4(13), 2015, с.29-46.

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