Tatarbieva A. D.

Saint-Petersburg State University

ARMS TRANSFERS AS A MAJOR CAUSE OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY

Annotation: The article is aimed to evaluate the extent to which the availability of weapons through different ways of arms transfer is contributing to the proliferation and aggravation of armed. The author gives an overview of general trends in arms transfers worldwide, analyzes major regional armed conflicts during 2012-2015 comparing them with directions of arms transfers; tries to find out problems in control mechanisms of international arms market.

Key words: arms transfer, arms trade, international security, regional conflicts, small arms and light weapons (SALW), Arms Trade Treaty (ATT).

The International arms transfers have a notable impact on international and national security of states through a change in the balance of power, maintenance or infringement of regional stability, control or heating aggressive aspirations of the military-political leadership of individual countries. Ross [4, p. 17], for instance, states that “while arms, whether domestically produced or imported, do not inevitably lead to military conflict, they exacerbate existing tensions and contribute to the perceptions and misperceptions that lead to war.” The problem is that arms trade as a major way of arms transfer poses a serious threat for an international security unlike conventional goods trade and economic relations. Arms are usually sought because of the desire to maintain security vis-a-vis one's neighbors, or to enhance one's role and status within a region -thence the importance of a regional approach to both comprehending and controlling arms transfers. [4] The volume of global military spending is increasing for the last 10 years. Currently, the market volume of arms and military equipment is estimated at $260-300 billion comparing $176,993 billion sold for the period 1987-1991 The increase in military spending was dictated by the war in Afghanistan and Iraq are much more than the spending on defense of the Americas, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. For many years the USA is at the first place according to its military spending with $631 billion in 2014 (China - $114.2 billion, Russia - $71 billion, UK - 58.98 $billion, about the same as France and Japan, Germany - $41.57 billion.. We can assume that it is more than one hundred thousand contracts per year. Only one Sweden for five years, from 2003 to 2007 has carried out 42,375 exports. Rosoboronexport concludes up to the 1700 contracts annual. [2]According to the SIPRI [5] the International arms market can be characterized with changing the roles of the major importers/exporters of arms, as well as the share of regions in total world trade in arms: Asia-Pacific region’s leading on the arms market (like increasing the influence and role of China, return of Saudi Arabia to the leading positions) and activation of the demand for weapons from Africa.

We can find connections between the volume of arms transfers and number of armed conflicts around the world. On the one hand there is a noticeable increase in the share of arms imports of Asia and Oceania for 40% (India, China, and Pakistan), Middle East for 19% and Africa for 7% comparing with 2004-2008. On the other hand, according to the UN statistics in 2008-2009, the world proceeded 14 major armed conflicts, in 2010 - 24, in 2011 they have become 26 (the UN recognizes the major conflict if more than one thousand people died as a result of armed violence). In response to the Egyptian military coup in 2013, for instance, the USA delivered 10 combat helicopters, which were considered of particular importance in the support of Egypt’s military campaign against rebels in the Sinai. From 2003 to 2013 Iraq imported large volumes of less-advanced major weapons from a variety of suppliers, including over 10 000 armored vehicles from the USA. In response to ISIS advances in 2014, many countries sent emergency military aid, including numerous second-hand weapons such as 250 armored personnel carriers from the USA, 18 towed guns from Bulgaria, 500 guided anti-tank missiles from Germany and 7 combat aircraft from Iran. Russia also became an important supplier to Iraq. Another is an example of Saudi Arabian army and using by its allies weapons against the civilian population in the Yemeni air and ground attacks (military operations in May 2015 organized by Saudi Arabia). [5] A wide range of weapons was delivered by both state parties (the USA, Spain, France, UK, Montenegro, Germany, the Netherlands, etc.) and non-state parties (China, Canada) of the Arms Trade Treaty.

The growing availability of small arms has been a major factor in the increase in the number of conflicts. Once war has started, the existence of large and sophisticated stocks of weapons may make the conflict more violent and destructive. Arms may deter aggression and restore a local imbalance. How do weapons get into the wrong hands? I will take the example of the flow of illicit firearms: AK-47s are manufactured in China. The small arms are legally sold to security forced in Sudan. The guns are stolen and smuggled through South Sudan to Uganda. Then they are sold on the black market to rebel forces in the Congo.[3] According to the International law, one of the ways of settlement of local conflicts related to a transfer of weapons is the implementing of different types of sanctions: financial, trade, arms embargoes [1], bans on cross-border travel and air transport. But the arms embargo does not stop a military conflict that continues or due to overflow of weapons from one of the opposing side to the other, or by his illegal purchases through third countries or other illicit methods (the embargo is more or less effective in only about 25% of cases). The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), which was ratified by 85 countries, was not ratified by the main arms suppliers on the international market: Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia. Does is make then any sense? The international community still did not find an adequate way to solve the current dilemma between national interest in production and sales of weapons and arms control.

References:

1) Fruchart D., Holtom P., Wezeman S.T., Strandow D. and Wallensteen P., «United Nations Arms Embargoes Their Impact on Arms Flows and Target Behaviour»; A report by SIPRI-2007.

2) Official site of Rosoboronexport: www.roe.ru

3) Oxfam International, Beyond Viktor Bout. Why the United States Needs an Arms Trade Treaty, Oxfam Briefing Paper, p. 153

4) Pierre, Andrew J., The Global Politics of Arms Sales. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1982.

5) SIPRI YEARBOOK 2015. Armaments, disarmament, and international security. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute