Политология / 10.Региональные политические процессы.

Aukhadieva Shamshinur Dalelеvna Ph.D.

Kazakh Ablay Khan university of international relations and world languages

Almaty, Kazakhstan.

Shauenova Nazerke Kozha-Ali-Askarovna

Kazakh Ablay Khan university of international relations and world languages

3^rd course student, Department of International Relations.

BRICS: prospects and strategic priorities

BRICS — structure very non-uniform on the level of the economic development reached by its participants and their roles in world economy. In the near future the situation cardinally won't change.At the result there won’t be any question how steady the partnership between not absolutely equal partners and is there their future. It is obvious that all member countries of BRICS see in this union thepossibility of the solution of economic problems together with partners in the block, collective upholding of the interests before other participants of world economy, strengthening of the positions in more serious and powerful organizations.

Why Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa drew attention of experts?

We will address to sources of BRICS. From the philosophical point of view, origin of the term of "BRICS»denotes at the same time neccessity (inevitability) and contingency.For the first time this term was offered ten years ago by the economist Jim O'Neill - the head of one of the world's largest commercial banks of JSC Goldman Sachs. On November 20, 2001 he gave definition to this concept of the report on results of research of global economy published by JSC Goldman Sachs and entitled "The world needs more effective economic "bricks".In the name of the report the author beat similarity of reduction of BRIC to the English word a brick - "brick". Thus, at the description of probable consequences of rapid economic growth which could be shown in the future Brazil, Russia, India and China, Jim O'Neill for the first time used this term.

It should be noted that the idea of association of four countries in one concept is represented as courageous and far-sighted: despite geographical, historical, cultural, religious, language, world outlook distinctions, Brazil, Russia, India and China are united in terms of belonging to the countries with high-growth economy, and also the general aspiration to more fair world order.In this regard the Chinese option of this concept is more colourful and metaphoric, than its English interpretation: (jinzhuanguojia) is literally translated as "the countries built from gold ingots".

It is interesting fact that in the above-mentioned report Jim O'Neill, whom the former head of the BBC Davies called "the best economist in the world, in the sphere of finance over the last ten years", gives the short characteristics of each of four countries: Brazil - "a world source of raw materials", Russia - "world petrol filling station", India - "world office", China - "world factory".

We will notice that long before Jim O'Neill some experts and the organizations already made attempts of the complex analysis of these four states. For example, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in the research report for 1997 came to a conclusion that by 2020 the share of presence of the developed countries in world system will make 1/3, the developing states - 2/3 while GDP of Brazil, Russia, India and China will reach 1/3 universal volumes of GDP.

In 2000 National Intelligence Council as a part of U.S. intelligence community published the report under the name "Global tendencies-2015: dialogue about the future with non-governmental experts" where claimed that, proceeding from total purchasing power, in 2015 indicators of GDP of four developing economies will increase twice, and especially China and India will succeed in it.

In October, 2003 Jim O'Neill and his command from a name of JSC Goldman Sachs published research work "Dreaming of BRIC: A way to 2050" ("Dreams with BRIC: a way to 2050") in which stated the courageous assumption that by 2050 Brazil, Russia, India and China will be the engine of all world economy.Proceeding from this research, it is possible to claim that on GDP volume: Brazil in 2025 will overtake Italy, in 2031 - France; Russia in 2027 will overtake Great Britain, in 2028 - Germany; India in 2032 will overtake Japan and, at last, with high probability it is possible to assume that in 2041 China will overtake the USA and will become the first economic superstate in the world.

The given economic account also contained the forecast that in 2050 four countries will have 40 percent of the world population and the volume of GDP exceeding 14 trillion dollars.In addition, in 2041 cumulative indicators of GDP of four states will exceed similar indicators of six largest industrial powers, namely: The USA, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan and Italy (that is "the big seven" of the leading countries of the world except for Canada).Thus, by 2050 there will be a restructuring of world economy and shift of the centers of global influence: economic giants as their power will be China, the USA, India, Japan, Brazil and Russia (we will pay attention that here all State Parties of BRIC are presented). It follows from this that the countries of BRIC have all necessary prerequisites for creation of the strong and powerful economic block, thereby having intercepted a palm at present "Group of Eight".

We will note that against the growing wave of popularity of concept of "BRIC" of JSC Goldman Sachs in 2005 published the new report entitled "How strong The states of BRIC".In this work systematization and streamlining of the ideas stated in the report for 2003 are carried out. In other words, now China will overtake the USA in 2040, that is a year earlier, than was predicted earlier. In view of minor improvement of an economic picture in modern Japan, experts predict slower "overtaking" of Japan by India: not in 2032, but in 2033.

It should be noted that in this report the main emphasis is placed on the deep and complex analysis of possible consequences of the accruing influence of economies of four countries on the universal market.Jim O'Neill and his colleagues counted that in development of global economy of the state of BRIC will accelerate rates of the growth from 20% in 2003 to 40% in 2025.At the same time the presence share (general economic "weight") of these countries in world economic architecture \very tecktonikdanse will increase from 10% in 2004 to 20% in 2025.Besides, during the period from 2005 to 2015 over 800 million people in Brazil, Russia, India and China will step over a threshold of the annual income in 3,000 dollars.

According to data of Institute of economy at Academy of social sciences of the People's Republic of China, to the entry of the South African Republic into BRIC in 2011 the total area of territories of four countries made 26% of all territorial area of the globe, the cumulative population of four countries reached 42% of all population of the planet.These figures eloquently testify that during the closest several ten years the State Parties of BRIC will possess enormous productive forces to what the developed countries of Europe and USA are obviously not ready. In spite of the fact that in 2001 GDP of Brazil, Russia, India and China made only 7,8% of the universal volume of GDP, the subsequent rates of economic growth of these countries allowed the last to outstrip Europe and America in short terms and to leave in vanguard of world development.In particular it belongs to China which shows impressive rates of economic growth recently.

Thus, the term of "BRIC" offered in 2001 by Jim O'Neill is not only the abbreviation having under itself rich research base but also the certain vector defining the direction of development of huge economic capacity of four states.

Up to 2011 in relation to this organization the abbreviation of BRIC, however, in connection with accession of the Republic of South Africa to BRIC was used on February 18, 2011, the group began to carry the name of BRICS.

As it was already noted, the sequence of letters in this concept is defined not only harmony, but also that the concept of an English transcription of BRICS is very similar to the English word of bricks - "bricks". Thus, this term is used as designation of group of the countries which growth will provide in many respects future rise in world economy and stock markets in particular.

Despite of notable distinctions in levels of economic and social development, historical and cultural traditions, the states of BRICS unites collective aspiration to creation of the fair system of the international relations equally considering historically developed interests of the developed and developing, big and small countries.

It is obvious that in the absence of strengthening of practical interaction between Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa further cooperation within BRICS will be incomplete.In view of this regularity, leaders of the states of "five" already defined the concrete directions of interaction to which problems of food security, questions of global climate change, scientific and technical cooperation and power belong, for example.We will notice that active discussion of above-mentioned subjects was observed during two last summits of a forum of BRICS: in the Chinese city of Sanya in 2011 and in the Indian capital of New Delhi in 2012.It should be noted that specific projects of practical interaction and a form of coordination of efforts of five countries within "Group of twenty" and in general on the international scene demand further politological consideration and the complex analysis.

In the conditions of global crisis development of the countries of BRICS is difficult to predict. And in very high degree it depends not on purely economic factors any more, and on the political.Despite everything, it is possible to speak about the formed traditions already. The BRICS Summits precede the summits of G20 as their purpose is development and upholding of a collective position on the major financial and economic questions. Besides, the summits of BRIC is not the only contacts of top-level "BRICS countries".Meetings of leaders of the countries within G-20, meetings of the UN, official visits to the countries entering one of the largest associations XXI centuries – all this creates that fabric of the relations which over the years will only strengthen and move the relations of the called countries forward.

The list of the used literature:

1. BRIC: Prerequisites of rapprochement and prospect of interaction. M.: Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences of Latin America, 2010; B.

2. Oleg Ivanov. Russia-India arms deal not aimed at China/Global Times, January 10, 2013.

3. Denisov A.I. Russia and China: four eyelids of interaction. Under the editorship of A. V. Lukin. M.: Whole world, 2013//Whole world. Publishing house//http://www .vesmirbooks.ru/fragments/1811/.

4. Koval O. Great brick wall / However, #11(75).

5. Kolesnikov of A. Tak-s, BRICS … Comments//Release No. 34 of March 28, 2012.